Compare scenarios
Review the base case beside pessimistic and optimistic changes, then add one custom scenario. The table exposes each changed input and flags assumptions clipped to valid bounds.
Check your input
This is the previous result. Update the inputs and select “Calculate” again.
Result
Worked example
This example uses the same calculation as the form. Enter your values and select “Calculate” to see your result.
Example inputs
- Average order value: 5000
- Variable costs: 2000
- Taxes and fees: 500
- Purchases per customer: 3
- Calculation horizon: Customer lifetime
- Allowed margin share for acquisition: 40
- Lead-to-customer conversion rate: 20
- Click-to-lead conversion rate: 5
- Acquisition target: Revenue
- Target revenue: 500000
- Target sales: 100
- Target customers: 100
- Scenario input 1: Variable costs
- Scenario input 1 deviation: 0.1
- Scenario input 2: Allowed margin share
- Scenario input 2 deviation: -0.2
Example result
- Contribution margin per order: RUB 2,500
- Target CAC: RUB 3,000
- Sales required: 100
- Planned advertising budget: RUB 300,000
| Scenario | Assumptions | Contribution margin per sale | Target CAC | Sales | Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | 2 250 ₽ | 2 700 ₽ | 100 | 270 000 ₽ | |
| Base case | 2 500 ₽ | 3 000 ₽ | 100 | 300 000 ₽ | |
| Optimistic | 2 750 ₽ | 3 300 ₽ | 100 | 330 000 ₽ | |
| Custom | 2 300 ₽ | 2 208 ₽ | 100 | 220 800 ₽ |
- The explicit pessimistic and optimistic deviations change only the assumptions shown in the table.
- Compare where budget grows faster than contribution and where a scenario becomes unprofitable.
- Scenarios use the same calculation code as the flagship calculator; the formulas are not duplicated.
- The table shows each deviation. Compare budget and contribution, not only the target customer cost.
- Pessimistic: Illustrative assumptions (±10% to costs and conversion rates); these are not market benchmarks.
- Base case: Base case: your assumptions are unchanged.
- Optimistic: Illustrative assumptions (±10% to costs and conversion rates); these are not market benchmarks.
- Custom: Custom scenario: changed assumptions are shown alongside the result.
- Each scenario holds the same goal constant and changes the stated assumptions. Compare how contribution and target CAC move.
- Your custom scenario is listed last. Change its deviations and calculate again to see their effect.
- The scenarios are illustrative, not a market forecast; use them to examine the resilience of your unit economics.
Formulas and units
M1 = AOV − VC − TR— Contribution from one sale after variable costs and taxes.targetCAC = LTVc × S— Target CAC at the allowed contribution share S.salesNeeded = ceil(targetRevenue / AOV)— First-order sales required to meet the revenue goal.
Values are rounded for display only; enter percentages on a 0–100 scale. See the methodology.
Formula version: 1.0
Checked 2026-09-26.